As Bihar gears up for assembly elections scheduled in October-November 2025, the political landscape is witnessing a major shift. While Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s popularity has declined, the spotlight is now firmly on RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, who has emerged as the most preferred Chief Ministerial face, according to the latest India Today-CVoter survey.
Despite this surge in popularity, there remains a lack of consensus within the INDIA alliance—comprising the RJD, Congress, CPI(ML), Left parties, and Mukesh Sahni’s VIP—on whether to project Tejashwi Yadav as the chief ministerial candidate.
Tejashwi Yadav Leads the Popularity Polls
According to the May edition of the India Today-CVoter survey, 36.9% of respondents want Tejashwi Yadav as the next Chief Minister of Bihar. In comparison, Nitish Kumar trails with 18.4%, followed by Prashant Kishor (16.4%), Chirag Paswan (10.6%), and BJP's Samrat Chaudhary (6.6%).
This marks the third consecutive survey in which Tejashwi has maintained a commanding lead. His popularity among the public significantly surpasses that of other contenders, raising a critical question: Will the Congress and Left parties now align behind him as the CM face?
INDIA Bloc Yet to Reach Consensus
While the RJD has made it clear that it will contest the election with Tejashwi Yadav as its CM face, the Congress and CPI(ML) remain reluctant. CPI(ML) General Secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya recently stated that the chief minister should be from the party that wins the most seats in the alliance. The Congress also echoed this stance in high-level meetings held in Delhi and Patna.
The primary concern cited by these parties is that projecting Tejashwi as CM might alienate non-Yadav OBC voters and upper castes, thus impacting the alliance’s overall vote share. However, given Tejashwi’s sustained lead in popularity surveys, the pressure is mounting for the alliance to reconsider its stand.
The Strategic Dilemma: CM Face or Post-Poll Decision?
The Congress and CPI(ML) are adopting a cautious strategy—contesting the elections without declaring a CM face. Their formula is similar to the one adopted in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the INDIA alliance refrained from announcing a PM candidate. In Bihar, a coordination committee headed by Tejashwi Yadav has been formed, but his official projection as the CM face remains undecided.
The Congress believes that keeping the CM choice open avoids the risk of vote polarization. The plan is that the party winning the most seats post-election will select the Chief Minister, much like Rahul Gandhi was made Leader of Opposition after the Congress emerged as the largest party in the Lok Sabha.
RJD in 'Wait and Watch' Mode
Though RJD is pushing for Tejashwi's leadership, the party is currently not pressing hard, as reflected in Tejashwi’s recent remark: “There is no confusion in the Mahagathbandhan.” This indicates that RJD might be open to negotiation or tactical silence, at least until seat-sharing talks are finalized.
Will Popularity Override Politics?
The central question remains: Will the Congress and Left parties rethink their strategy and capitalize on Tejashwi Yadav’s popularity? Or will they stick to their formula and maintain suspense around the CM face until after the elections?
As the election date approaches, the answer to this question could determine the fate of the INDIA bloc in Bihar.
